In recent months, potato farmers in Bangladesh have been driven to expand their cultivation significantly due to the enticing high prices observed last year. However, this increase in potato production has now raised concerns about future returns and potential market instability.
Expanding Cultivation: The Motivators and Challenges
High potato prices experienced in the previous year have spurred farmers across Bangladesh to increase their potato cultivation areas. According to the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS), there has been a 13% rise in potato cultivation this year, which translates into an additional 64,000 hectares compared to 2024. This surge in cultivation has even surpassed the government’s target by 54,000 hectares. Many farmers, like Md Shohag Ahmed from Dinajpur, who typically allocated a portion of their land to other crops, have opted to devote their entire land to potatoes in hopes of capitalising on high market prices.
However, as the early potato harvest began with 12,000 hectares already reaped, prices have started to decline. Currently, potatoes are selling for around Tk40 per kg in Dhaka, a significant drop from the prices farmers hoped to maintain.
Worries About Market Prices
While there is optimism due to the previous year’s favourable market conditions, farmers are worried that this year’s increased production might not yield the high returns they expect. Jannatul Naim, a farmer from Shahjahanpur, Bogura, expressed concerns about covering production costs if market prices fall. The wholesale prices currently hover around Tk15-20 per kg, whereas the production costs per bigha are approximately Tk70,000-75,000. With a typical yield of about 60 maunds per bigha, farmers like Naim face potential financial losses if prices drop further.
Experts also echo these concerns, suggesting that a surplus in production might drive prices down, leaving farmers unable to cover their costs. Dr Jahangir Alam Khan, an agricultural economist, emphasised the need for government intervention to stabilise market prices and protect both farmers and consumers.
Calls for Government Action
The call for effective market management is strong among the farming community and economists. Dr Khan proposed that the government could help secure fair prices by procuring a portion of the potato yield, similar to India’s procurement strategy for 23 agricultural products. This approach would not only ensure that farmers receive a fair price but also help stabilise the market in the event of shortages.
The Bangladesh Cold Storage Association, led by Mostafa Azad Chowdhury Babu, suggests considering export options if production exceeds storage capacities. With cold storage facilities able to hold 45 lakh tonnes, and farmers able to store an additional 35-45 lakh tonnes until around May-June, exceeding a total production of 90 lakh tonnes would necessitate such measures.
Early Harvesting and Its Impact
The premature harvesting this year, beginning as early as mid-February instead of the typical mid-season harvest spanning from February to March, has contributed to the price decline. Last year saw potato prices soaring beyond Tk50 per kg during the peak season, peaking at Tk80 per kg in November, marking a five-year high. The early harvesting this year has disrupted this trend, leading to an unexpected decline in prices earlier than anticipated.
Looking Forward
Government representatives, such as Dr Mohammad Emdad Ullah Mian, Secretary of the Ministry of Agriculture, are keeping a close eye on the situation. He indicated that accurate production numbers are yet to be finalised as harvesting continues, and decisions regarding procurement will be based on whether production indeed surpasses demand.
The current scenario poses a complex challenge for the Bangladeshi potato industry. While there is potential for substantial yields, the fear of falling prices looms large over the farmers. Ensuring that both farmers receive fair compensation and consumers benefit from reasonable prices requires strategic government intervention, effective market management, and perhaps even new policies to handle the potential surplus.
It is a balancing act to maintain market stability and safeguard the livelihoods of farmers who have placed their hopes on the humble potato, driven by the promises of the previous year’s lucrative market but cautious of the pitfalls that overproduction might bring.
