Domestic Shortage and Rising Prices in Russia
Due to adverse weather conditions and a reduction in planted acreage, Russia experienced a significant drop in potato yields in 2024. This led to a notable shortage in the domestic market and a sharp increase in retail prices. Potato imports in the 2024/25 season are expected to nearly double compared to the previous year, while exports have significantly decreased.
To address the supply issue, the Russian government lifted import duties on up to 150,000 tons of vegetables, including potatoes, until July 2025. Egypt remained the leading supplier during the winter-spring period, but high prices for Egyptian potatoes created challenges for both importers and consumers. This has driven interest in alternative suppliers offering more competitive pricing.
Emerging Suppliers: India, Pakistan, and South Africa
Russian importers have started contracting potato shipments from India, Pakistan, and South Africa. According to industry estimates, the agreed price for these shipments is approximately $380 per metric ton on CIF terms (port of Novorossiysk). These conditions present an opportunity to reduce overall import costs and increase availability in the Russian market
India: A High-Potential Exporter
India, one of the largest potato producers globally, is preparing to launch exports to Russia. Technical and phytosanitary arrangements are currently being finalized. Initial shipments are expected to begin in 2025. Indian potatoes are attractive due to their production scale, competitive pricing, and year-round supply capacity.
Pakistan: Scaling Up Through Barter Trade
Pakistan has resumed potato exports to Russia and is rapidly increasing volume. A key feature of this trade is the use of barter agreements: Pakistan supplies potatoes and citrus fruits in exchange for Russian legumes and grains. This structure bypasses currency constraints and facilitates mutual trade. With pricing around $380 per ton, Pakistani potatoes are seen as a viable alternative.
South Africa: New Player on the Market
South Africa is entering the Russian market with growing interest. With strong agricultural infrastructure and stable potato production, the country is ready to meet Russia’s import needs. Regulatory procedures are underway, and initial shipments could begin in the coming months. South Africa’s ability to deliver quality produce at competitive prices may establish it as a long-term supplier
Competitive Pressure on Egyptian Potatoes
Egypt has traditionally dominated the Russian market for early-season potatoes. However, rising production costs and new global competition are challenging its position. New suppliers offering similar quality at lower prices are forcing Egyptian exporters to adjust their strategies. Industry reports indicate that Egyptian export prices have already started to decline in response to this pressure.If new suppliers can maintain consistent volumes and meet quality standards, a portion of the Russian demand may shift away from Egypt.
Outlook and Conclusions
The arrival of India, Pakistan, and South Africa in the Russian potato market represents a strategic shift in supply dynamics. These countries offer competitive pricing and stable production, which could reduce Russia’s dependence on any single source and create a more resilient market.For Egyptian exporters, maintaining their market position will require increased flexibility, pricing adjustments, and stronger trade relationships.For Russian importers and consumers, the expansion of supply sources will likely lead to greater market stability, improved price conditions, and enhanced food security. The diversification of imports marks a positive development for the future of the Russian potato sector.
